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<h1 class="detail-title">Rupee spirals down against dollar</h1>
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<span class="author">Lokeshwarri S.K.</span>
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September 13, 2011:&nbsp;&nbsp;
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It was a period of heightened volatility in foreign exchange markets since last Friday. Matters came to a head in the Euro zone with fears of an imminent Greek sovereign debt default pushing prices of Greek bonds to record lows. This in turn raised a question mark over French banks that are holding these bonds. The euro went spiralling lower and the dollar went shooting higher on rising risk-aversion. </p>
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Rupee crashed 3 per cent lower from Thursday's close of 46.19 to Tuesday's low of 47.6 as the sluice gates of selling were thrown open. Downward reversal in equity markets and FIIs pulling out about Rs 1,300 crore since last Friday also affected the sentiment adversely. However, according to EPFR Global, a global fund-flow tracker, &#8220;India Equity Funds, saw outflows ebb to an eight week low as speculation mounted that the Reserve Bank of India will pause its current tightening cycle.&#8221; </p>
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The one-month rupee forwards in the non-deliverable forward market were trading at 47.9 while three-month forwards were trading at 48.2 reflecting the current bearish sentiment.
</p>
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<b>Dollar-rupee outlook: </b>The pace of decline in rupee against the dollar over the last three sessions has been breath-taking. The USD-INR pair penetrated the support at 46.3 that we have been watching over the last couple of weeks, with ease and has already moved close to the next support band between 47.1 and 47.7 indicated in our last column.
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Technical levels are not sacrosanct when selling fury is unleashed. But as discussed earlier, the zone between 47.1 and 47.7 that halted the decline in May 2010 can arrest the current decline. Another rebound from this zone will mean that the uptrend from March 2009 trough of 52.1 continues to be strong.
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However sustained decline below this zone will take the currency pair to 48 or 49 over the ensuing weeks. Long-term view will turn negative on a close below 49 and the next target will be the pair's life-time low of 52.1. The region between 46.2 and 46.3 will be the key short-term resistance in the days ahead.
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USD-INR futures moved beyond our outermost target at 46.87 to reach the high of 47.7 on Tuesday. Immediate targets for this contract are 48 and 48.4. The ceiling of the gap formed on Monday at 46.90 can act as the stop-loss for short-term traders. Subsequent supports are at 46.7 and 46.4.
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<b>EUR-INR futures:</b> Rupee has been appreciating against the Euro and the EUR-INR futures have been declining as a result. Resistances for the days ahead would be at 65.6 and 66.9. Failure to move above the first resistance will mean that the contract can move down to 63.6 or 63 again.
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GBP-INR futures moved in line with our expectation bouncing to 75.49 on Tuesday. Next target for the contract is the previous peak at 76. If this level is breached, the contract can move on to 76.8. Traders can hold the contract with the stop at 74.7. Next support is at 74.3.
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<b>JPY-INR futures:</b> Rupee moved lower against the yen causing the JPY-INR futures to take off sky-wards to achieve our first medium-term target at 61. Next medium-term target stays at 66. Supports for the week ahead are at 60.4 and 59.4.
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/*
* This function is required and is used to display
* the ads that are returned from the JavaScript
* request. You should modify the document.write
* commands so that the HTML they write out fits
* with your desired ad layout.
*/
var s;
/*
* Verify that there are actually ads to display.
*/
if (google_ads.length == 0)
return;
google_num_ads += google_ads.length;
google_last_ad_type = google_ads[0].type;
/*
* If an image or Flash ad is returned, display that ad.
* If a rich media ad is returned, display that as "as is."
* Otherwise, build a string containing all of the ads and
* then use a document.write() command to print that string.
*/
s = '<div class="ad_label"><a class="ad_attribution" href="'+
google_info.feedback_url+'">Ads by Google</a></div>';
if (google_ads[0].type == "image") {
s += '<a href="' + google_ads[0].url +
'" target="_top" title="go to ' + google_ads[0].visible_url +
'"><img border="0" src="' + google_ads[0].image_url +
'"width="' + google_ads[0].image_width +
'"height="' + google_ads[0].image_height + '"></a>';
}
else if (google_ads[0].type == "flash") {
s += '<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000"' +
' codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,0,0"' +
' WIDTH="' + google_ad.image_width +
'" HEIGHT="' + google_ad.image_height + '">' +
'<PARAM NAME="movie" VALUE="' + google_ad.image_url + '">' +
'<PARAM NAME="quality" VALUE="high">' +
'<PARAM NAME="AllowScriptAccess" VALUE="never">' +
'<EMBED src="' + google_ad.image_url +
'" WIDTH="' + google_ad.image_width +
'" HEIGHT="' + google_ad.image_height +
'" TYPE="application/x-shockwave-flash"' +
' AllowScriptAccess="never" ' +
' PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer"></EMBED></OBJECT>';
}
else if (google_ads[0].type == "html") {
s += google_ads[0].snippet;
}
else if (google_ads[0].type == "text") {
// Adjust text sizes to occupy the majority of ad space.
if (google_ads.length == 1) {
ad_title_class = 'ad_title_large';
ad_text_class = 'ad_text_large';
ad_url_class = 'ad_url_large';
} else {
ad_title_class = 'ad_title';
ad_text_class = 'ad_text';
ad_url_class = 'ad_url';
}
for(var i=0; i < google_ads.length; i++) {
s += '<div class="ad_background"><br><a class="' + ad_title_class + '" href="' + google_ads[i].url + '" >' +
google_ads[i].line1 + '</a><br><span class="' + ad_text_class + '">' +
google_ads[i].line2 + ' ' +
google_ads[i].line3 + '</span><br>' +
'<a class="' + ad_url_class + '" href="' + google_ads[i].url + '" >' +
google_ads[i].visible_url + '</a><br></div>';
}
}
document.write(s);
return;
}
// -->
</script>
<script language="JavaScript">
<!--
/*
* This section is responsible for setting the parameters of the ad call
* Customize this section to your needs with input from your account manager
*/
// The following parameters should be modified appropriately
google_ad_client = 'ca-hindu_site_html'; // substitute your client_id
google_ad_channel = 'newbl_article_main_text_468x60'; // substitute your channel
google_ad_output = 'js'; // leave this value as js
google_max_num_ads = '3'; // specify the number of maximum ads
google_ad_type = 'text'; // type of ads to display - text,image,flash,html
google_safe = 'high'; // specify the ad safety
google_feedback = 'on';
// The following parameter is required if you are displaying image, Flash or rich media ads.
google_image_size = '468x60'; // the size of the ad block
// The following parameters are options you can specify as necessary
// google_encoding = 'utf8'; // specify the output language of the ads
// google_language = 'en'; // override the default page language
// The following parameter should be used only during testing
// google_adtest = 'on'; // remove this line on launch day
// -->
</script>
<!--
/*
* The JavaScript returned from the following page uses
* the parameter values assigned above to populate an array
* of ad objects. Once that array has been populated,
* the JavaScript will call the google_ad_request_done
* function to display the ads.
*/
-->
<script language="JavaScript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js">
</script>
<div class="noline"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="clear"></div>
</div>
<!-- end article block -->
<!-- Google Translate Element --> <div id="email-section">
<a href="mailto:bleditor@thehindu.co.in" title="Email the Editor ">Email the Editor</a> </div> <!-- end comment section -->
<div class="line"></div>
</div>
<!-- close left column -->
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<!-- START RIGHT COLUMN -->
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<div id="right-column">
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<div id="ad1" class="right-tout">
<script type="text/javascript">
<!--
ord=Math.random()*10000000000000000;
document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/pdindhbl/Variety;sz=300x250;ord=' + ord + '?"><\/script>');
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</script>
</div>
<!-- END AD -->
<!-- START AD -->
<div id="ad1" class="right-tout">
<script language="JavaScript">
<!--
// These variables are for maintaining state when using ad skip
var google_num_ads = 0;
var google_last_ad_type = '';
function google_ad_request_done(google_ads) {
/*
* This function is required and is used to display
* the ads that are returned from the JavaScript
* request. You should modify the document.write
* commands so that the HTML they write out fits
* with your desired ad layout.
*/
var s;
/*
* Verify that there are actually ads to display.
*/
if (google_ads.length == 0)
return;
google_num_ads += google_ads.length;
google_last_ad_type = google_ads[0].type;
/*
* If an image or Flash ad is returned, display that ad.
* If a rich media ad is returned, display that as "as is."
* Otherwise, build a string containing all of the ads and
* then use a document.write() command to print that string.
*/
s = '<div class="ad_label"><a class="ad_attribution" href="'+
google_info.feedback_url+'">Ads by Google</a></div>';
if (google_ads[0].type == "image") {
s += '<a href="' + google_ads[0].url +
'" target="_top" title="go to ' + google_ads[0].visible_url +
'"><img border="0" src="' + google_ads[0].image_url +
'"width="' + google_ads[0].image_width +
'"height="' + google_ads[0].image_height + '"></a>';
}
else if (google_ads[0].type == "flash") {
s += '<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000"' +
' codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,0,0"' +
' WIDTH="' + google_ad.image_width +
'" HEIGHT="' + google_ad.image_height + '">' +
'<PARAM NAME="movie" VALUE="' + google_ad.image_url + '">' +
'<PARAM NAME="quality" VALUE="high">' +
'<PARAM NAME="AllowScriptAccess" VALUE="never">' +
'<EMBED src="' + google_ad.image_url +
'" WIDTH="' + google_ad.image_width +
'" HEIGHT="' + google_ad.image_height +
'" TYPE="application/x-shockwave-flash"' +
' AllowScriptAccess="never" ' +
' PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer"></EMBED></OBJECT>';
}
else if (google_ads[0].type == "html") {
s += google_ads[0].snippet;
}
else if (google_ads[0].type == "text") {
// Adjust text sizes to occupy the majority of ad space.
if (google_ads.length == 1) {
ad_title_class = 'ad_title_large';
ad_text_class = 'ad_text_large';
ad_url_class = 'ad_url_large';
} else {
ad_title_class = 'ad_title';
ad_text_class = 'ad_text';
ad_url_class = 'ad_url';
}
for(var i=0; i < google_ads.length; i++) {
s += '<br><a class="' + ad_title_class + '" href="' + google_ads[i].url + '" >' +
google_ads[i].line1 + '</a><br><span class="' + ad_text_class + '">' +
google_ads[i].line2 + ' ' +
google_ads[i].line3 + '</span><br>' +
'<a class="' + ad_url_class + '" href="' + google_ads[i].url + '" >' +
google_ads[i].visible_url + '</a><br>';
}
}
document.write(s);
return;
}
// -->
</script>
<script language="JavaScript">
<!--
/*
* This section is responsible for setting the parameters of the ad call
* Customize this section to your needs with input from your account manager
*/
// The following parameters should be modified appropriately
google_ad_client = 'ca-hindu_site_html'; // substitute your client_id
google_ad_channel = 'newbl_ros_sidebar_image_300x250'; // substitute your channel
google_ad_output = 'js'; // leave this value as js
google_max_num_ads = '3'; // specify the number of maximum ads
google_ad_type = 'image,flash,html'; // type of ads to display - text,image,flash,html
google_safe = 'high'; // specify the ad safety
google_feedback = 'on';
// The following parameter is required if you are displaying image, Flash or rich media ads.
google_image_size = '300x250'; // the size of the ad block
// The following parameters are options you can specify as necessary
// google_encoding = 'utf8'; // specify the output language of the ads
// google_language = 'en'; // override the default page language
// The following parameter should be used only during testing
// google_adtest = 'on'; // remove this line on launch day
// -->
</script>
<!--
/*
* The JavaScript returned from the following page uses
* the parameter values assigned above to populate an array
* of ad objects. Once that array has been populated,
* the JavaScript will call the google_ad_request_done
* function to display the ads.
*/
-->
<script language="JavaScript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js">
</script>
</div>
<!-- END AD -->
<!-- Latest Articles -->
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<h2>CROSS CURRENCY RATE</h2>
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<option value='http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2447127.ece#mmskw'>South Korean Won</option>
<option value='http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2447127.ece#mmskr'>Swadish Kroner</option>
<option value='http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2447127.ece#mmsfr'>Swiss Franc</option>
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<option value='http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2447127.ece#mmusd'>US Dollar</option>
<option value='http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2447127.ece#mmyun'>Chinese Yuan</option>
<option value='http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2447127.ece#mmaed'>Arab Emirates Dirham</option>
</select>
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$(function() {
$('.crcrrate_select').change(function() {
document.location = this.value;
});
});
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<div class="noline"></div>	<div class="linktable">
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2447129.ece">Exchange Rate</a>
</div>
<div class="linktable">
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2447128.ece">Dollar Spot Forward Rate</a>
</div>
<div class="linktable">
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2449650.ece">Traveller Rates</a>
</div>
<div class="linktable">
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2441446.ece">Find the best Fixed Deposit Rates</a>
</div>
<div class="linktable">
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/article2450424.ece">Open-Ended Mutual Funds</a>
</div>
<div class="linktable">
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2450206.ece">MCX-SX Currency Futures</a>
</div>
<div class="linktable">
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2450397.ece">NSE Currency Futures</a>
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<div id="breaking-link"><a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article1167269.ece" title=""><h2>Forex - Rupee vs Dollar </h2></a></div>
<div class="right-tout headlines">
<div>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article2449651.ece" title="Updated on: September 13, 2011 at 13:10 IST &#013;
Published on: September 13, 2011 at 13:09 IST &#013;
in BANKING" alt="Updated on: September 13, 2011 at 13:10 IST &#013;
Published on: September 13, 2011 at 13:09 IST &#013;
in BANKING">Forex Rates</a>
<ul>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="articlespace"></div>
<div id="breaking-link"><a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/article1505903.ece" title=""><h2>Columnists</h2></a></div>
<div class="right-tout headlines">
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/b-s-raghavan/" title="List of columns written by B. S. RAGHAVAN" target="_blank">B. S. Raghavan</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/tca-srinivasa-raghavan/" title="List of columns written by T.C.A. SRINIVASA RAGHAVAN" target="_blank">T. C. A. Srinivasa Raghavan</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/rasheeda-bhagat/" title="List of Columns written by RASHEEDA BHAGAT" target="_blank">Rasheeda Bhagat</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/a-seshan/" title="List of columns written by A. SESHAN" target="_blank">A. Seshan</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/ashoak-upadhyay/" title="List of columns written by ASHOAK UPADHYAY" target="_blank">Ashoak Upadhyay</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/ekalavya/" title="List of columns written by EKALVYA" target="_blank">Ekalavya</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/c-p-chandrasekhar/" title="List of columns written by C.P. CHANDRASEKHAR and JAYATI GHOSH" target="_blank">C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/p-v-indiresan/" title="List of columns written by P.V.INDIRESAN" target="_blank">P. V. Indiresan</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/sharad-joshi/" title="List of Columns written by SHARAD JOSHI" target="_blank">Sharad Joshi</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/raghuvir-srinivasan/" title="List of columns written by RAGHUVIR SRINIVASAN" target="_blank">Raghuvir Srinivasan</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/k-kanagasabapathy/" title="List of columns written by K. KANAGASABAPATHY" target="_blank">K. Kanagasabapathy</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/g-parthasarathy/" title="List of columns written by G. PARTHASARATHY" target="_blank">G. Parthasarathy</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/g-chandrashekhar/" title="List of columns written by G. CHANDRASHEKHAR" target="_blank">G. Chandrashekhar</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/mohan-murti/" title="List of columns written by MOHAN MURTI" target="_blank">Mohan Murti</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/ashima-goyal/" title="List of columns written by ASHIMA GOYAL" target="_blank">Ashima Goyal</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/d-murali/" title="List of columns written by D. MURALI" target="_blank">D. Murali</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/gnanasekaar-t/" title="List of columns written by GNANASEKAAR T" target="_blank">Gnanasekaar T</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/c-gopinath/" title="List of columns written by C. GOPINATH" target="_blank">C. Gopinath</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/rajiv-kumar/" title="List of columns written by RAJIV KUMAR" target="_blank">Rajiv Kumar</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/bhaskar-balakrishnan/" title="List of columns written by BHASKAR BALAKRISHNAN" target="_blank">Bhaskar Balakrishnan</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/narendar-pani/" title="List of columns written by NARENDAR PANI" target="_blank">Narendar Pani</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/s-murlidharan/" title="List of columns written by S. MURLIDHARAN" target="_blank">S. Murlidharan</a>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<!-- START AD -->
<div id="ad1" class="right-tout">
<script language="JavaScript">
<!--
// These variables are for maintaining state when using ad skip
var google_num_ads = 0;
var google_last_ad_type = '';
function google_ad_request_done(google_ads) {
/*
* This function is required and is used to display
* the ads that are returned from the JavaScript
* request. You should modify the document.write
* commands so that the HTML they write out fits
* with your desired ad layout.
*/
var s;
/*
* Verify that there are actually ads to display.
*/
if (google_ads.length == 0)
return;
google_num_ads += google_ads.length;
google_last_ad_type = google_ads[0].type;
/*
* If an image or Flash ad is returned, display that ad.
* If a rich media ad is returned, display that as "as is."
* Otherwise, build a string containing all of the ads and
* then use a document.write() command to print that string.
*/
s = '<div class="ad_label"><a class="ad_attribution" href="'+
google_info.feedback_url+'">Ads by Google</a></div>';
if (google_ads[0].type == "image") {
s += '<a href="' + google_ads[0].url +
'" target="_top" title="go to ' + google_ads[0].visible_url +
'"><img border="0" src="' + google_ads[0].image_url +
'"width="' + google_ads[0].image_width +
'"height="' + google_ads[0].image_height + '"></a>';
}
else if (google_ads[0].type == "flash") {
s += '<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000"' +
' codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,0,0"' +
' WIDTH="' + google_ad.image_width +
'" HEIGHT="' + google_ad.image_height + '">' +
'<PARAM NAME="movie" VALUE="' + google_ad.image_url + '">' +
'<PARAM NAME="quality" VALUE="high">' +
'<PARAM NAME="AllowScriptAccess" VALUE="never">' +
'<EMBED src="' + google_ad.image_url +
'" WIDTH="' + google_ad.image_width +
'" HEIGHT="' + google_ad.image_height +
'" TYPE="application/x-shockwave-flash"' +
' AllowScriptAccess="never" ' +
' PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer"></EMBED></OBJECT>';
}
else if (google_ads[0].type == "html") {
s += google_ads[0].snippet;
}
else if (google_ads[0].type == "text") {
// Adjust text sizes to occupy the majority of ad space.
if (google_ads.length == 1) {
ad_title_class = 'ad_title_large';
ad_text_class = 'ad_text_large';
ad_url_class = 'ad_url_large';
} else {
ad_title_class = 'ad_title';
ad_text_class = 'ad_text';
ad_url_class = 'ad_url';
}
for(var i=0; i < google_ads.length; i++) {
s += '<div class="ad_background"><br><a class="' + ad_title_class + '" href="' + google_ads[i].url + '" >' +
google_ads[i].line1 + '</a><br><span class="' + ad_text_class + '">' +
google_ads[i].line2 + ' ' +
google_ads[i].line3 + '</span><br>' +
'<a class="' + ad_url_class + '" href="' + google_ads[i].url + '" >' +
google_ads[i].visible_url + '</a><br></div>';
}
}
document.write(s);
return;
}
// -->
</script>
<script language="JavaScript">
<!--
/*
* This section is responsible for setting the parameters of the ad call
* Customize this section to your needs with input from your account manager
*/
// The following parameters should be modified appropriately
google_ad_client = 'ca-hindu_site_html'; // substitute your client_id
google_ad_channel = 'newbl_ros_sidebar_text_300x250'; // substitute your channel
google_ad_output = 'js'; // leave this value as js
google_max_num_ads = '3'; // specify the number of maximum ads
google_ad_type = 'text'; // type of ads to display - text,image,flash,html
google_safe = 'high'; // specify the ad safety
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